Capital Budgeting Decisions Chapter Objectives Understand the nature and importance of investment decisions. Distinguish between discounted cash flow (DCF) and non-discounted cash flow (non-DCF) techniques of investment evaluation. Explain the methods of calculating net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). Show the implications of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). Describe the non-DCF evaluation criteria: payback and accounting rate of return and discuss the reasons for their popularity in practice and their pitfalls. Illustrate the computation of the discounted payback.

Describe the merits and demerits of the DCF and Non-DCF investment criteria. Compare and contract NPV and IRR and emphasize the superiority of NPV rule. Nature of Investment Decisions Introduction The investment decisions of a firm are generally known as the capital budgeting, or capital expenditure decisions. The firms investment decisions would generally include expansion, acquisition, modernisation and replacement of the long-term assets. Sale of a division or business (divestment) is also as an investment decision.

Decisions like the change in the methods of sales distribution, or an advertisement campaign or a research and development programme have long-term implications for the firms expenditures and benefits, and therefore, they should also be evaluated as investment decisions. Features of Investment Decisions The exchange of current funds for future benefits. The funds are invested in long-term assets. The future benefits will occur to the firm over a series of years.

Importance of Investment Decisions Growth Risk Funding Irreversibility Complexity Types of Investment Decisions

One classification is as follows: Expansion of existing business Expansion of new business Replacement and modernisation Yet another useful way to classify investments is as follows: Mutually exclusive investments Independent investments Contingent investments Overview of Capital Budgeting Capital budgeting is the process of evaluating and selecting long-term investments that are

consistent with the firms goal of maximizing owner wealth. A capital expenditure is an outlay of funds by the firm that is expected to produce benefits over a period of time greater than 1 year. An operating expenditure is an outlay of funds by the firm resulting in benefits received within 1 year. Overview of Capital Budgeting The process through which different projects are evaluated is known as capital budgeting Capital budgeting is defined as the firms formal process for the acquisition and investment of

capital. It involves firms decisions to invest its current funds for addition, disposition, modification and replacement of fixed assets. Capital budgeting is long term planning for making and financing proposed capital outlays- Charles T Horngreen. Overview of Capital Budgeting Capital budgeting consists in planning development of available capital for the purpose of maximizing

the long term profitability of the concern Lynch The main features of capital budgeting are a. potentially large anticipated benefits b. a relatively high degree of risk c. relatively long time period between the initial outlay and the anticipated return. Significance of capital budgeting The success and failure of business mainly depends on how the available resources are being utilised. Main tool of financial management All types of capital budgeting decisions are exposed to risk and uncertainty. They are irreversible in nature.

Capital rationing gives sufficient scope for the financial manager to evaluate different proposals and only viable project must be taken up for investments. Capital budgeting offers effective control on cost of capital expenditure projects. It helps the management to avoid over investment and under investments. Capital Budgeting Process 1. Project generation: Generating the proposals for investment is the first step. The investment proposal may fall into one of the following categories:

Proposals to add new product to the product line, proposals to expand production capacity in existing lines proposals to reduce the costs of the output of the existing products without altering the scale of operation. Sales campaigning, trade fairs people in the industry, R and D institutes, conferences and seminars will offer wide variety of innovations on capital assets for investment. Capital Budgeting Process Project Evaluation: it involves two steps Estimation of benefits and costs: the benefits and costs are measured in terms of cash flows. The estimation of the cash inflows and cash outflows mainly depends on future uncertainties. The risk associated with each project must be

carefully analyzed and sufficient provision must be made for covering the different types of risks. Selection of an appropriate criteria to judge the desirability of the project: It must be consistent with the firms objective of maximising its market value. The technique of time value of money may come as a handy tool in evaluation such proposals. Capital Budgeting Process Project Selection: No standard administrative procedure can be laid down for approving the investment proposal. The screening and selection procedures are different from firm to firm. Project Evaluation: Once the proposal for capital expenditure is finalized, it is the duty of the finance manager to explore the

different alternatives available for acquiring the funds. He has to prepare capital budget. Sufficient care must be taken to reduce the average cost of funds. He has to prepare periodical reports and must seek prior permission from the top management. Systematic procedure should be developed to review the performance of projects during their lifetime and after completion. The follow up, comparison of actual performance with original estimates not only ensures better forecasting but also helps in sharpening the techniques for improving future forecasts. Factors Influencing Capital Budgeting

Availability of funds Structure of capital Taxation policy Government policy

Lending policies of financial institutions Immediate need of the project Earnings Capital return Economical value of the project Working capital Accounting practice Trend of earnings Investment Evaluation Criteria Three steps are involved in the evaluation of an investment: Estimation of cash flows Estimation of the required rate of return (the opportunity

cost of capital) Application of a decision rule for making the choice Investment Decision Rule It should maximise the shareholders wealth. It should consider all cash flows to determine the true profitability of the project. It should provide for an objective and unambiguous way of separating good projects from bad projects. It should help ranking of projects according to their true profitability. It should recognise the fact that bigger cash flows are preferable to smaller ones and early cash flows are preferable to later ones. It should help to choose among mutually exclusive projects that project which maximises the shareholders wealth.

It should be a criterion which is applicable to any conceivable investment project independent of others. Cash Flow Estimation General outline for estimating new venture cash flows Pre-start-up, the initial outlayeverything that has to be spent before the project is started Sales forecastunits and revenues Cost of sales and expenses Assetsnew assets to be acquired, including changes in working capital Amortizationnon-cash expense but affects income taxes Taxes and earnings Summarize and combineadjust earnings for amortization

and combine result with balance sheet items to arrive at a cash flow estimate A Few Specific Issues The Typical Pattern At beginning of the project, some amount must be spent to invest in the project (Initial outlay) Subsequent cash flows tend to be positive Project Cash Flows Are Incremental What cash flows will occur if we undertake this project that wouldnt occur if we left it undone and continued business as before? A Few Specific Issues

Sunk Costs Costs that have already occurred and cannot be recovered should not be included in projects cash flows Only future costs are relevant Opportunity Costs What is given up to undertake the new project The opportunity cost of a resource is its value in its best alternative use For instance, if firm needs a new warehouse, it could either: Lease warehouse space Buy warehouse Build warehouse on land they currently own (but could sell for $1,000,000)the $1,000,000 represents an opportunity cost

A Few Specific Issues Impacts on Other Parts of Company Sales erosion (cannibalization)when firm sells a product that competes with other products within the same firm (Diet Coke vs. Coke Classic) Margin lost in other linenegative cash flow for project Taxes Cash outflow Use after-tax cash flows Cash Versus Accounting Results Capital budgeting deals only with cash flows; however business managers want to know projects net income

A Few Specific Issues Working Capital New project often requires investment in working capital inventory, for instance Increasing net working capital means cash outflow Ignore Financing Costs Do not include interest expense on debt (or dividends on shares) as cash outflow Addressed via discount rate when determining NPV or evaluating IRR Old Equipment If this is replacement project, old equipment can be sold (thereby generating a cash inflow)

Cash Flow Estimation Calculation of cash outflow Cost of project/asset Transportation/installation charges Working capital Cash outflow xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx Cash Flow Estimation Calculation of cash inflow

Sales Less: Cash expenses PBDT Less: Depreciation PBT less: Tax PAT Add: Depreciation Cash inflow p.a xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx

xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx Evaluation Techniques 1. Non-discounted Cash Flow Criteria Payback Period (PB) Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) 2. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Criteria Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Profitability Index (PI)

Discounted Payback Period (DPB) Accounting Rate of Return It considers the earnings of the project of the economic life. This method is based on conventional accounting concepts. The rate of return is expressed as percentage of the earnings of the investment in a particular project. The profits under this method is calculated as profit after depreciation and tax of the entire life of the project. This method of ARR is not commonly accepted in assessing the profitability of capital expenditure. Because the method does not consider the heavy cash inflow during the project period as the earnings with be averaged. The cash flow advantage derived by adopting different kinds of depreciation is also not considered in this method.

Accounting Rate of Return Accept or Reject Criterion: Under the method, all project, having Accounting Rate of return higher than the minimum rate establishment by management will be considered and those having ARR less than the pre-determined rate. This method ranks a Project as number one, if it has highest ARR, and lowest rank is assigned to the project with the lowest ARR. Accounting Rate of Return Under this method average annual profit(after tax) is expressed as percentage of investment.

ARR is found out by dividing average income by the average investment. ARR is calculated with the help of the following formula ; ARR = Average income or return 100 average investment Accounting Rate of Return Average investment = original investment +scrap value 2 OR = original investment scrap value 2 For eg; X Y

capital cost 40000 60000 Earnings after depreciation are as follows Accounting Rate of Return The average earnings of project X = 24000 = GH 6000. 4 The average investment = cost at the beginning + cost at the end of the life. 2 40000+0 = GH 20000. 2

ARR =6000 100 = 30 % 20000 Average earnings of project y = 30000 4 = GH 7500. Average investment = 60000+0 = GH 30000. 2 ARR = 7500 100 = 25 % 30000 Accounting Rate of Return Merits It is very simple to understand and use.

This method takes into account saving over the entire economic life of the project. Therefore, it provides a better means of comparison of project than the pay back period. This method through the concept of "net earnings" ensures a compensation of expected profitability of the projects and It can readily be calculated by using the accounting data. Accounting Rate of Return Demerits 1. It ignores time value of money. 2. It does not consider the length of life of the projects.

3. It is not consistent with the firm's objective of maximizing the market value of shares. 4. It ignores the fact that the profits earned can be reinvested. Payback Period It refers to the period in which the project will generate the necessary cash to recover the initial investment. It does not take the effect of time value of money. It emphasizes more on annual cash inflows, economic life of the project and original investment. The selection of the project is based on the earning capacity of a project. It involves simple calculation, selection or rejection of the

project can be made easily, results obtained is more reliable, best method for evaluating high risk projects. Payback Period Decision criteria: The length of the maximum acceptable payback period is determined by management. If the payback period is less than the maximum acceptable payback period, accept the project. If the payback period is greater than the maximum acceptable payback period, reject the project. Payback Period For e.g- if a project requires GH20000 as initial

investment and it will generate an annual cash flow of GH5000 for ten years, the pay-back period will be 4 years, calculated as follows Pay back period = Initial investment Annual cash Flow The Annual cash flow is calculated on the basis of Net income before depreciation but after considering the tax. (PAT + Depreciation) Payback Period

GH19000 is recovered in 3years and GH1000 is left out of initial investment. The cash inflow in 4th year is GH4000 which indicates that payback period is in between 3rd and 4th year.i.e.3+(1000/4000) = 3.25 years Payback Period Pros Useful for evaluation of projects with high uncertainty, political instability, obsolescence of Technology etc Method based on the assumption that no profit arises till initial capital is recovered. Suitable for new companies Simple to understand and to workout Reduces the possibility of loss due to obsolescence as the investment is made only on short term projects

Discounted Payback Period The discounted payback period is the number of periods taken in recovering the investment outlay on the present value basis. The discounted payback period still fails to consider the cash flows occurring after the payback period. 3 DISCOUNTED PAYBACK ILLUSTRATED P PV of cash flows Q PV of cash flows

C0 -4,000 -4,000 -4,000 -4,000 Cash Flows (Rs) C1 C2 3,000 1,000 2,727

826 0 4,000 0 3,304 C3 1,000 751 1,000 751 C4 1,000

683 2,000 1,366 Simple PB Discounted PB NPV at 10% 2 yrs

2.6 yrs 2.9 yrs 987 1,421 2 yrs Discounted Payback Period

Example 2: Assuming the cost of capital for the firm is 10%. Calculate the discounted cash flows and the discounted payback period. Discounted Payback Period GH18554.3 is recovered in 4 years and GH1445.7 is left out of initial investment. The cash inflow in 5th year is GH2483.6 which indicates that pay-back period is in between 4th and 5th year.i.e.3+(1445.7/2483.6) = 4.58 years Net Present Value Net present value (NPV) is a sophisticated

capital budgeting technique; found by subtracting a projects initial investment from the present value of its cash inflows discounted at a rate equal to the firms cost of capital. NPV = Present value of cash inflows Initial investment Net Present Value C1 C3 Cn C2 NPV

C0 2 3 n (1 k ) (1 k ) (1 k ) (1 k ) n Ct NPV C0

t t 1 (1 k ) Net Present Value Decision criteria: If the NPV is greater than $0, accept the project. If the NPV is less than $0, reject the project. If the NPV is greater than $0, the firm will earn a return greater than its cost of capital. Such action should increase the market value of the firm, and therefore the wealth of its owners by an amount equal to the NPV.

Net Present Value Cash flows of the investment project should be forecasted based on realistic assumptions. Appropriate discount rate should be identified to discount the forecasted cash flows. The appropriate discount rate is the projects opportunity cost of capital. Present value of cash flows should be calculated using the opportunity cost of capital as the discount rate. Evaluation of the NPV Method NPV is most acceptable investment rule for the following reasons:

Time value Measure of true profitability Value-additivity Shareholder value Limitations: Involved cash flow estimation Discount rate difficult to determine Mutually exclusive projects Ranking of projects Internal Rate of Return The internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate that equates the investment outlay with the

present value of cash inflow received after one period. This also implies that the rate of return is the discount rate which makes NPV = 0. C0 C3 Cn C1 C2

(1 r ) (1 r ) 2 (1 r )3 (1 r ) n n C0 t 1 n t 1 Ct (1 r )t Ct

C0 0 (1 r )t Calculation of IRR Uneven Cash Flows: Calculating IRR by Trial and Error The approach is to select any discount rate to compute the present value of cash inflows. If the calculated present value of the expected cash inflow is lower than the present value of cash outflows, a lower rate should be tried. On the other hand, a higher value should be tried if the present value of inflows is higher than the present value of outflows. This process will be repeated unless the net present value becomes zero.

Calculation of IRR Level Cash Flows Let us assume that an investment would cost Rs 20,000 and provide annual cash inflow of Rs 5,430 for 6 years. The IRR of the investment can be found out as follows: NPV Rs 20,000 + Rs 5,430(PVAF6,r ) = 0 Rs 20,000 Rs 5,430(PVAF6, r ) PVAF6, r Rs 20,000 3.683

Rs 5,430 NPV Profile and IRR A 1 NPV Profile 2 Cash Flow 3 -20000 4 5430 5 5430 6 5430

7 5430 8 5430 9 5430 B Discount rate 0% 5% 10% 15%

16% 20% 25% C NPV 12,580 7,561 3,649 550 0 (1,942) (3,974)

D E F G IR R Figure 8.1 NPV Profile

H Calculation of IRR You intended to invest in a project with the following cash flows; Calculation of IRR Using a rate of return of 15%, Calculate the NPV of the project Calculate the IRR Calculation of IRR Calculation of IRR

= +( ) Calculation of IRR Calculation of IRR Calculation of IRR Acceptance Rule

Accept the project when r < k. Reject the project when r < k. May accept the project when r = k. In case of independent projects, IRR and NPV rules will give the same results if the firm has no shortage of funds. Evaluation of IRR IRR method has following merits:

Time value Profitability measure Acceptance rule Shareholder value IRR method may suffer from: Multiple rates Mutually exclusive projects Value additivity

Profitability Index Profitability index is the ratio of the present value of cash inflows, at the required rate of return, to the initial cash outflow of the investment. Profitability Index The initial cash outlay of a project is Rs 100,000 and it can generate cash inflow of Rs 40,000, Rs 30,000, Rs 50,000 and Rs 20,000 in year 1 through 4. Assume a 10 per cent rate of discount. The PV of cash inflows at 10 per cent discount rate is:

Acceptance Rule The following are the PI acceptance rules: Accept the project when PI is greater than one. PI < 1 Reject the project when PI is less than one. PI < 1 May accept the project when PI is equal to one. PI = 1 The project with positive NPV will have PI greater than one. PI less than means that the projects NPV is negative. Evaluation of PI Method It recognises the time value of money.

It is consistent with the shareholder value maximisation principle. A project with PI greater than one will have positive NPV and if accepted, it will increase shareholders wealth. In the PI method, since the present value of cash inflows is divided by the initial cash outflow, it is a relative measure of a projects profitability. Like NPV method, PI criterion also requires calculation of cash flows and estimate of the discount rate. In practice, estimation of cash flows and discount rate pose problems.