HURRICANE DIAGNOSTICS T.N. Krishnamurti Mrinal Biswas, Anu Simon,
HURRICANE DIAGNOSTICS T.N. Krishnamurti Mrinal Biswas, Anu Simon, A. Thomas ERROS IN THE CONVECTIVE HEATING IN HWRF 9mn forecast Hurricane Celia 2010 18z 22 June Inner Domain res ~ 9Km WIND PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP KATRINA 2005 Model Run at 1.33km 45 40 S u p e r g r a d i e n t W i n d s 35 30
25 20 15 10 5 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Change in Liquid water mixing ratio (g/g) 1 1.2 Storm path Hurricane Celia (2010) 19-29 JUN MAX WIND (MPH) 160 Post processing of Hurricane Ensemble Forecasts T. N. Krishnamurti and Mrinal K Biswas 28 September 2010 Model Descriptions for Mesoscale Models for ensemble forecasts Models Nesting Horizontal resolution (km)
Vertical levels Cumulus Microphysic Parameterizati s on PBL Land Surface Radiation Initial and boundary conditions Initialization HWRF 2 27/9 43 Simplified Arakawa Schubert Ferrier GFS NonLocal PBL GFDL Slab Model
GFS Simplified Arakawa Schubert Ferrier GFS NonLocal PBL GFDL Slab Model Schwarzkopf and Fels (1991) (longwave) / Lacis and Hansen (1974) (shortwave) Advanced vortex initialization that uses GSI 3D-var assimilation of Doppler radar data to run in development parallel. HWRF 2 13.5/4.5 42
HWRF-X HRD version of HWRF 2 9/3 42 Simplified Arakawa Schubert Ferrier GFS scheme NCEP LSM RRTM (longwave) / Dudhia (shortwave) GFS HWRF WRF ARW (NCAR) 2 12/4 36 New Kain Fritsch (12 km
only) WSM5 YSU 5-layer thermal diffusion soil model RRTM (longwave) / Dudhia (shortwave) GFS EnKF method in a 6-hour cycling mode COAMPS-TC 3 45/15/5 (15/5 km following the storm) 40 Kain Fritsch Force and restore slab land surface model
Harshvardardet et al. (1987) NOGAPS 3D-Var data assimilation with synthetic observations GFDL 3 30/15/7.5 42 Arakawa Schubert Ferrier GFS NonLocal PBL Slab Model Schwarz-kopfFels scheme GFS GFDL synthetic bogus vortex WRF ARW 2 12/4
27 Simplified Arakawa Schubert WSM5 YSU 5-layer thermal diffusion soil model RRTM (longwave) / Dudhia (shortwave) GFS (initial and boundary condition) GFS Explicit Navy 1.5 microphysics order closure (5 class bulk scheme) GFS Correlation based model ensembles Observed increment values (Lat, Lon, Int) for each lead time
Model increment forecasts (Lat, Lon, Int) for each lead time Correlation coefficients for each model for Lat, Lon, Int at each lead time Normalize the coefficients using available member models for Lat, Lon, Int at each lead time Utilize the above coefficients during the forecast phase and construct a new forecast Training phase 2008 and 2009 storm cases (Total 164 cases) The storm to be forecasted is taken out (if it is in the training period) to calculate the correlation coefficients Hurricane Ike (2008) Ike (2008) Track Errors Sep 1-14 1200 ARFS 1000
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