Gross Trade Accounting, Cross Country Production Sharing and

Gross Trade Accounting, Cross Country Production Sharing and Global Value-Chain Zhi Wang United States International Trade Commission Based on Tracing value-added and double counting in gross exports by Koopmam, Wang and Wei, American Economic Review, 104(2):459-494, 2014; and NBER wp19677 Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels by Wang, Wei and Zhu The Third World KLEMS Conference, Tokyo, May 19-20, 2014 The views expressed in this presentation are solely of the presenter. It is not meant to represent in anyway the official views of the USITC and its Commissioners 1 Presentation Outline Overview of existing concepts and methods in trade in value-added literature and their shortcomings Decomposition of value-added production (forward linkage) Decomposition of final demand (backward linkage) Decomposition of gross trade flows (beyond Leontief insight) Use two and three country cases to illustrate the core ideas of gross trade accounting method and the valueadded structure of gross trade Gross exports = exports of value added + domestic value added that returns home + foreign value added + double counting due to trade in intermediate goods Why we think the new accounting framework can reshape our understanding of the pattern of global trade 2 Motivation Official trade statistics are misleading in the presence of trade in intermediate goods; Need a framework to bridge the gap between official trade data (in gross terms) and national accounts statistics (in value added terms) ; Need a method to fully decompose intermediate trade. Quantifying value-added structure and double counting of gross trade at sector and bilateral levels and their implications for cross country production sharing and a countrys position and participation in global value-chains (GVCs); Need a transparent framework helps policymakers and the public to discover GVC-related information masked by official trade data. 3 Newer Measures of Trade in Value-added Value-added exports and VAX Ratio Value-added produced in source country but absorbed in destination country. Johnson and Noguera (2012) suggest use value-added exports to gross exports ratio as summary measure of value-added content of trade and inversed index of double counting in trade statistics; Two major shortcomings of VAX ratio It is not well-behaved at the sector, bilateral, or bilateral sector

level. There is no guarantee that value added exports are less than gross exports at these disaggregated levels. Even when the VAX ratio is properly redefined, it still can not capture some of the important features of international production sharing. 5 Two Major Limitations of VAX ratio The key to understand the first shortcoming of VAX ratio is a distinction between a forward-linkage-based measure of valueadded exports (VAX_F), and a backward-linkage-based measure of value-added exports (VAX_B) at sector level. The key to understand the second shortcoming is that the structure of value-added exports and double counting besides their total sums contain important information of cross country production sharing. Two countries can have identical value added to gross exports ratios but very different structure of value added exports and double counting due to their different role in GVCs. 6 Two type value-added trade at sector level -example In the electronic sector, forward linkage based measures would include the value added created by production factors employed at the electronics sector and incorporated into gross exports of electronics itself (direct domestic value-added exports), as well as exports of computers, consumer appliances, and automobiles (indirect domestic value-added exports), but exclude value-added contribution from any other sectors. In comparison, a backward linkage based measure of value-added embodied in electronic exports, would include value added in intermediate inputs from all other sectors/countries (such as glass from country A, rubber from country B, transportation and design from the home country) used to produce gross electronics exports, but exclude value-added contribution from the source countrys electronic sector to its gross exports of other sectors. 7 Why VAX ratio is not well behaved at sector and bilateral level? Direct value-added exports at the sector level are the same for both valueadded export measures, but indirect value-added exports at the sector level are often very different between these two measures. Indirect value-added exports in the forward-linkage-based measure are the sectors value-added embodied in other sectors gross exports, which has no relation to the gross exports from that sector. Therefore, VAX ratio at the sector level compare banana and apples. It is common in the data for some sectors with very little or no gross exports, but their products are used by other domestic industries as intermediate inputs, and thus have a large amount of indirect value-added exports through other sectors. In such cases, the VAX ratio will become very large or infinite. Similarly, at the bilateral level, due to indirect value-added trade via third countries, two countries can have a large volume of value-added trade even they have little or no gross trade. 8

Why VAX ratio miss important information of cross country production sharing? A countrys exports of value-added is smaller than its gross exports due to: a) the use of imported inputs to produce exports; b) a part of its DVA in exports may return home after being processed abroad; c) Double counting due to two way intermediate goods trade. Two countries can have similar value added to gross exports ratios but very different structure of (a), (b) and (c) due to each countrys different position and participation in GVCs. Examples 9 VT12 V1 X 12 V1B11Y12 V1B12Y22 Decomposition of value-added and final goods production based on Leontief insights (1) When N=2 v1s 0 VB Y 0 0 0 v2s 0 0 0 0 v1r 0 0 b11ss ss 0 b21 0 b11rs r rs v2 b21 b12ss ss b22 b12rs rs b22 b11sr sr b21

b11rr rr b21 v1s b11ss y1s s ss s v2 b21 y1 r rs s v1 b11 y1 r rs s v2 b21 y1 v1s b12ss y2s ss s v2s b22 y2 rs s v1r b12 y2 rs s v2r b22 y2 v1s b11sr y1r sr r v2s b21 y1 v1r b11rr y1r rr r v2r b21 y1 v1s b12sr y2r sr r v2s b22 y2 v1r b12rr y2r r rr r v2 b22 y2 b12sr y1s sr b22 0 b12rr 0 rr b22 0 0 y2s 0 0 0 0

y1r 0 0 0 0 r y2 Decompose GDP by sector; forward linkage based Decompose final goods by VA source; backward Linkage based 13 Applications of Leontief insights in trade in value-added and GVC decomposition literature Decompose final goods to its country/sector value-added sources based on Leontief insights (backward linkage, sum VB Y matrix across rows). GVC income: Value-added countries contribute to the production of final manufacturing goods (Timmer et al, 2013); Share of foreign value-added in total value of final products (Los, Timmer, and Vries, 2014) Decompose GDP by industry to where and how it is used based on Leontief insights (forward looking linkage, sum VB Y matrix across columns). Johnson and Noguera (2012) only measured sector value-added absorbed by foreign countries, part of GDP by industry statistics. 15 Limitation of Leontief insight Estimating value-added exports can be accomplished by directly applying the original Leontief insight. It does not require the decomposition of intermediate trade flows. However, discovering the value-added structure of trade from trade statistics requires finding a way to decompose intermediate trade into value-added and double-counted parts, which cannot be achieved by simply applying Leontiefs insight; Because gross intermediate trade flows have to be solved first from the inter-country input-output (ICIO) models for any given level of final demand. In Wang et al. (2013), we find a way to solve this endogeneity issue by categorising all bilateral intermediate trade flows into major final demand groups according to their final destination of absorption. This key technical step converts gross outputs (and gross exports) usually

endogenous variables in standard ICIO models to exogenous variables in the gross trade accounting framework we proposed. 16 VT V V DV B EY12V V XBV B11 Y112 B11 VT YV12121B11VVA1112 BB12X12Y2Y2221 V1B V111 B Y1212 A 21V1XB112 ( I A22 ) X 2 11B 1211 112 12 111E 12V 2211 Decompose Gross Exports based on but beyond Leontief insights E sr Y sr A sr X r (1) Y sr V s B ssY sr V r B rsY sr (2) A sr X r The key is decompose r rs rs ss sr rr rr rr rs

x b b y y b b y y r 1 11 12 1 1 11 12 1 1 X r rs rr rs ss sr rr rr rs x b b y y b b y y 2 2 2 21 22 2 21 22 2 sr sr r sr sr rs rs ss

sr a a x a a b b y a 12 1 11 12 11 12 1 11 A sr X r 11sr sr r sr sr rs rs ss sr a21 a22 x2 a21 a22 b21 b22 y2 a21 a11sr a12sr b11rr b12rr y1rr a11sr a12sr b11rr b12rr y1rs sr sr sr rr rr rr

sr rr rr rs a a b b y a a b b 22 21 22 2 22 21 22 y 2 21 21 (3) a12sr b11rs b12rs y1sr sr rs rs sr a22 b b 21 22 y2 (4) 17 Gross bilateral intermediate trade between Country s and r Asr BrtYts Asr BrtYtr Asr BrrYrs Asr BrrYrt Exporting Country S Intermediate exports G Asr X r Asr k Brk Yk * Direct Importing Country R Asr Brr Yr* Re-exports to T G

Asr t s ,r Brt Yt* Third Country T Asr BrsYst Re-exports to S Asr BrsYs* Final Goods consumed in S Asr BrsYss Intermediate trade flows Final Goods consumed in R Asr BrrYrr Domestic final good flows Final Goods consumed in T G Asr t r ,s Brt Ytt Final trade flows Gross Exports Accounting Building on the decomposition of gross bilateral intermediate trade according to their final destination of absorption, we decompose gross trade flows at any level of disaggregation into 16 value-added and double-counted components. Conceptually, these 16 components can be grouped into four buckets: Domestic value-added absorbed abroad (DVA); Domestic value added that is initially exported but finally returned and consumed at home via imports from other countries (RDV); It is not part of a country's exports of value-added, but account for part of the country's GDP; Foreign value added used in the production of exports (FVA); Double counted terms due to intermediate goods being traded back and forth that cross border multiple times (PDC). These intermediate trade transactions are not part of any countrys GDP or final demand, similar to domestic inter-industry transactions that use one type of intermediate input to produce another. Since all cross-country trade transactions are recorded by each countrys customs, they show up in

the official trade statistics. Make them different from domestic intermediate input transactions, 19 which are deducted from total gross output when official GDP by industry statistics are calculated. Gross Trade Accounting: Concepts (0) Gross exports (goods and services) (E) (1)+(2)+(3) Domestic valueadded absorbed abroad (DVA) (1) Final goods and services Exports (DVA_FIN) (2) Intermediates exports absorbed by direct importer (DVA_INT) (4) Domestic valueAdded first exported then returned home (RDV) (3) Intermediates sent to first importer and then re-exported to third country (DVA_INT_REX ) (5)+(8) Pure double counted terms (PDC) (6)+(7) Foreign valueadded (FVA) (5) Pure double

counting from domestic sources (DDC) Domestic Content (DC, sum (1) through (5)) (6) Foreign value added contained in final exports (FVA_FIN) (7) Foreign value added contained in intermediates exports (FVA_INT) (8) Pure double counting from foreign sources (FDC) Vertical Specialization (VS) E can be at country/sector, country aggregate, bilateral /sector or bilateral aggregate; 20 both DVA and RDV are based on backward linkages US-China trade in Electrical and Optical Equipment (WIOD C14) Year Total gross DVA_Fin DVA_INT DVA_Intrex exports RDV FVA from partner FVA from third countries PDC China exports to the United States 1995

2005 2011 1995 2005 2011 1995 2005 2011 10,998 5,947 2,046 552 16 87,608 33,399 16,329 4,056 341 176,924 74,043 39,801 9,344 1,296 US exports to China 3,400 1,097 1,215 379 182 16,402 3,264 5,072 3,591 1,777 35,059 9,377 12,195 6,742 2,470 Trade Balance -7,598 -4,850 -831 -173 166 -71,206 -30,135 -11,257 -465 1,436 -141,865 -64,666 -27,606 -2,602 1,174 314 1,948 3,665 26,332 5,581 40,915 13 231 718 176 3,485 5,946 383 1,251 2,044 130 1,216 1,513 -301 -1,565 -3,434 -25,081

-4,863 -38,871 -46 -2,269 -4,433 22 Decomposing DVA in Exports - Textile and Products (WIOD sector 04) USA-2008 USA-1995 India-Texitle USA-Texitle 100% 88 90% 86 80% 84 70% 82 50% 40% 90% 86 80% 84 50% 78 40% 76 20% 82 60% 80 30%

80 78 30% 76 20% DVA_FIN RDV_FIN DVA_INT RDV_INT DVA_INTrex DVA_total DVA_FIN RDV_FIN DVA_INT RDV_INT 11 20 09 20 07 20 05 20 03 20 01 20 19 19 99 72 97 0% 95 11 20

09 20 07 20 05 20 03 20 01 20 19 19 99 72 97 0% 74 10% 19 74 10% 95 88 70% 60% 19 100% DVA_INTrex DVA_total 24 Average VS Structure of World Manufacturing Industries, 1995-2011 % of VS

Year VS share in gross exports FVA _FIN FVA _INT FDC 1995 2000 2005 2007 2009 2010 2011 22.5 26.5 29.9 31.6 28.4 30.3 30.8 45.5 45.7 42.3 40.7 43.3 41.7 40.6 34.9 32.2 32.5 32.4 33.4 33.6 34.5 19.5 22.2 25.1 26.9 23.2 24.7 25.0 26

VS Structure of Electric and Optical Equipment Exports for selected Asian Economies Indonesia China FDC 120% FVi VS Chinese Taipei FDC 100% 80% 80% 201 1 9 5 200 200 3 200 200 7 1 FVi FVf VS India 120% 100% 200

199 9 199 5 1 9 20 0 FVf 20 1 7 20 0 5 0% 20 0 0% 3 20% 20 0 20% 1 40% 20 0 40% 9 60% 19 9 60%

7 80% 19 9 80% 5 100% 19 9 100% 7 120% 199 120% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 1 201 5 200 20 09 3 200 200 7 1 200

99 19 97 19 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 199 5 0% 0% 27 RCA Index should take into account both domestic and international production sharing Traditional RCA ignores two important facts: A country-sectors gross exports include foreign valueadded and double counted terms due to back and forth intermediate goods trade. a country-sectors value added may be exported indirectly via the countrys exports in other sectors. A conceptually correct measure of comparative advantage needs to exclude foreign-originated value added and pure double counted terms but include indirect exports of a sectors value added through other sectors of the exporting country. 28 RCA indexes for electric and optical equipment exports (WIOD sector14) China USA 3.0 1.7 2.5 1.5 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9

0.5 199 5 19 96 199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0 200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 20 05 200 6 20 07 200 8 20 09 201 0 201 1 0.7 RCA_ Gross RCA_Value Added RCA_ Gross RCA_Value Added 29 RCA indexes for business services exports (WIOD sector 30) India Germany 1.7 3.6

1.5 3.0 1.3 2.4 1.1 1.8 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.0 RCA_ Gross RCA_Value Added RCA_ Gross RCA_Value Added 30 Conclusion Our accounting method identifies exports of domestic value added; domestic value-added exported first but returns home; foreign valueadded used in production of exports; and double counted items arising from two way intermediate goods trade. These conceptually different components sum up to 100% of official gross exports statistics at any level of disaggregation. By identifying which parts of the official data are double counted and the sources of the double counting, we provide an effective way to correctly interpret official trade statistics in value-added terms and provide an index to quantitatively measure what and how much is double counted for each bilateral/sector trade flows . The structural information of domestic value-added and double counting in addition to their total sums can be used to evaluate a country/sectors position and participation in global production chains. 31

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