Sample Title - Pacific Fishery Management Council

Agenda Item D.1.a Supplemental NMFS Presentation 2 November 2018 West Coast Region Three Year Review of the Lower Columbia River tule fall Chinook Abundance-based Harvest Matrix Jeromy Jording, Sustainable Fisheries Division, Anadromous Harvest Branch Abundance Based Management (ABM) framework West Coast Region Lower River Hatchery Abundance Total Exploitation Rate Limit 0 30,000 0.30 30,000 40,000

0.35 40,000 85,000 0.38 >85,000 0.41 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2 Results West Coast Region Still using LRH stock management unit Year LRH Abundance Forecast Allowable ER preseason

LRH Actual Return Exploitation Rate Achieved 2012 127,000 0.41 85,000 0.43 2013 88,000 0.41 104,800 0.33 2014 110,000

0.41 101,900 0.46 2015 94,900 0.41 128,700 0.34 2016 133,700 0.41 81,500 0.36 2017 92,400 0.41

64,600 0.36 2018 62,400 0.38 n/a n/a U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3 THE N Results NOW West Coast Region Photo by Marilyn & Eric Jordan LCR tule Chinook salmon populations U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4 Results

Most years allowable preseason ER = 41% ERs have stayed under limit 66% of the time ER West Coast Region 0.48 0.46 0.44 0.42 0.4 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.3 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Allowable Rate Rate Achieved Time U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5 ABM framework adjusted for expected LRH future release strategies West Coast

Region LRH Abundance 0 24,000 24,000 31,000 31,000 67,000 >67,000 Total Exploitation Rate Limit 0.30 0.35 0.38 0.41 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6 Questions? Please send written comments to: West Coast Region [email protected] or 510 Desmond Drive SE, Suite 103 Lacey, WA 98503-1263 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7

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