Radar & lidar observations from Chilbolton

Reading Met Office collaboration Reading RAP University: R Hogan, P-J van Leeuwen, K Shine, A ONeill, R Sutton, S Gray, J Methven Met Office: R Kershaw, D Barker, P Stott Science themes 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. From processes to parameterisation to future models Advanced data assimilation High-resolution convective- and urban-scale modelling Multi-scale predictability and ensembles Attribution and seasonal-to-decadal prediction of climate through observation and process understanding 6. Application of the science of climate and its application in adaptation and mitigation decision-making 7. Space weather Diabatic influences on mesoscale structures in extratropical storms What is the origin, structure, and dynamical consequence of diabatically-generated flow anomalies in cyclonic storms and what are their consequences for rainfall and surface winds?

A. Observations and detailed modelling Observational campaign in four phases (aircraft and radar) Doug Parker, Sue Gray, Peter Knippertz, Dave Schultz Roy Kershaw, Phil Brown, Jon Taylor, Malcolm Kitchen B. Parametrization of physical processes Convection in cyclones, ocean & BL fluxes, latent heat release in clouds Bob Plant, Ian Renfrew, Tom Choularton Humphrey Lean, Paul Field C. Predictability at the mesoscale Ensembles and DA, balances at small scales, link to precipitation John Methven, Peter Jan van Leeuwen, Ross Bannister Sue Ballard, Nigel Roberts, Richard Swinbank, Dale Barker Data Assimilation Confronting atmospheric models with observations Kelly/Migliorini/Lean - Improving the use of satellite atmospheric motion vectors in high resolution NWP (EUMETSAT fellow) Eyre/Pavelin/Migliorini - improved methods for presenting satellite radiance information to NWP systems EUMETSAT/CASE Land data assimilation May workshop - Mason/Garcia-Pintado/Gurney - Macpherson/Barker Reading recently hired new Lecturer Tristan Quaife Coupled ocean-atmosphere-land data assimilation Haines integrating project + Lawless, van Leeuwen, Matthews/Barker

Convective-scale data assimilation Balance, ensembles, covariances: Dance/Bannister/Ballard Opportunities for expanded collaboration COPE convection field campaign and DA Space weather assimilating STEREO obs. into a solar wind model Crown copyright Met Office Improving radar assimilation & nowcasting Anthony Illingworth, Rob Thompson, John Nicol Malcolm Kitchen, Tim Darlington, Sue Ballard, Jacqueline Sugier Radar attenuation is the big problem in quantitative estimates of rainfall Can lead to substantial underestimates in severe flooding events New idea: attenuating targets also emit microwaves and total attenuation can be estimated from increased receiver noise Met Office shortly to fund Rob Thompson to evaluate

Wimbledon storm 28 June this 2011 Future work: assimilation Emission indicates total attenuation up to 7 dB Corresponds to a factor of 3 underestimate in rainfall which can now be corrected Also collaboration on assimilation of refractivity and insect winds DYMECS Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms Robin Hogan (PI), Bob Plant, Thorwald Stein, Kirsty Hanley, Humphrey Lean, Emilie Carter Gathering statistics on hundreds of storms and tracking their evolution with radar Will statistically evaluate the evolution of storm size, rain rate, ice water content, updraft strength in UM, plus testing new configurations and higher resolutions Application successful to use mOnSoOn Radar observations Forecast plan-view of rainfall

National radar network rainfall 16.00 on 26 August 2011 Rain rate (mm h-1) Met Office 1.5 km model Forecast 3D storm structure 3D structure observed by Chilbolton Atmospheric Science for Health Impacts of Urban Air Quality NERC consortium led by Reading (Stephen Belcher) with 11 other institutes including the Met Office Health Drivers

Particulate matter Ozone and NOx Heat waves Measurement strategy Establish infrastructure Long-term measurements to investigate seasonal variations IOPs for process studies Link to ACTUAL Urban Atmospheric Laboratory obs Atmospheric Science Questions Urban meteorology (Reading Met Office) Heat balance and BL depth Evolution of particulate matter Size, composition & processing Evolution of gas phase Emission, oxidation & processing

Process Studies Predictive tools Strengths and weaknesses Urban meteorology Janet Barlow, Stephen Belcher, Sylvia Bohnenstengel, Sian Lane, Humphrey Lean Model development Joint development of MORUSES urban scheme now introduced into JULES/UM Collaboration using mOnSoOn service Evaluation Long-term UKV being evaluated using Doppler lidar and other ACTUAL obs Large opportunity for evaluation of AQUM at high resolution over London with the huge ClearfLo dataset London urban heat island effect modelled using high resolution UK (Sylvia Bohnenstengel) Process studies

Boundary layer structure & depth over London Sea breezes & air quality Urban heat island Diurnal cycle AMDAR profiles Helen Dacre, Alan Grant, Robin Hogan, Dave Thompson, Volcanic Predictions and Observations VolcanicAsh Ash Jim Haywood, Franco Marenco, Ben Devenish The Eyjafjallajkull volcano erupted in April 2010 emitting a plume of ash into the atmosphere. The Met Office and the University of Reading collaborated in providing urgently needed model simulations of the ash plume The FAAM aircraft in-situ measurements of volcanic ash have been used to evaluate the NAME model Grant et al (2012), in prep. Dacre et al. (2012), in prep. Doppler lidars measurements at

Chilbolton and Exeter have been used to evaluate the NAME model Dacre et al. (2011), JGR Devenish et al. (2011), Atmos. Env. Marenco and Hogan (2012), JGR The MO and UoR have collaborated on a NERC proposal (PURE) to quantify the uncertainty of volcanic ash forecasts using a variety of statistical and physical models. [email protected] collaborations with Met Office High-res global modelling and applications (e.g. tropical and mid-latitude cyclones (P-L Vidale, L Shaffrey) - JWCRP post Attribution (R Sutton, J Gregory) including Changing Water Cycle - Joint posts & PhD student Asian summer monsoon (A Turner) - JWCRP post Ocean heat uptake and sea level (J Gregory) Atmosphere-land surface interactions (P-L Vidale) Convection (S Woolnough) including CASCADE project Monthly to decadal variability, predictability and prediction (R Sutton, E Hawkins, L Shaffrey, E Guilyardi) joint NERC & EU projects e.g. VALOR, THOR, SPECS Mid-latitude storms, storm tracks & blocking (L Shaffrey, T Woolings) Radiation and the water cycle in models and obs (R Allan) Development of processbased fingerprints for

attribution Changing water cycle (Beena Sarojini, jointly funded post-doc) GCM experiments to unpick the competing role of CO2 rise and aerosols More thoroughly account for role of natural internal variability (Vikki Frith, PhD student with Peter Stott, Rowan Sutton and Ed Hawkins) Improved understanding of ocean heat content and sea level rise (Proposed PhD studentship with Jonathan Gregory, Matt Palmer) Zonal mean precipitation changes as observed (coloured lines) and modelled (MM) Crown copyright Met Office Improved decadal predictions through better use of observational constraints Ed Hawkins and Peter Stott Weight future model predictions by their agreement with previous observational constraints (ASK) to get better decadal predictions

Figure for AR5 Chapter 11 Crown copyright Met Office Space weather Coronal mass ejections have potential to knock out satellites, kill astronauts, overload power grids Met Office is developing new forecasting system Reading has strong expertise in this area Lots of scope for collaboration (modelling, assimilation) Several proposals pending with Met Office involvement Matt Owens (Lecturer) Numerical modelling CME observations Prof Mike Lockwood Long-term solar variations Magnetosphere energetic particles Chris Davis (Reader) STEREO mission PI Ionospheric physics

Some key challenges to address by theme 1. From processes to parameterisation to future models Boundary-layer clouds, deep convection, ocean mixing, radiative transfer New dynamical core development (GUNG-HO project) 2. Advanced data assimilation Convective-scale data assimilation (e.g. FLOOD opportunity) Making use of new observations (clouds, refractivity, radar polarization) 3. High-resolution convective- and urban-scale modelling Enabling COPE science to go ahead Collaboration on AQUM at 1.5 km in urban areas 4. Multi-scale predictability and ensembles Strat-trop interaction, convective-scale ensembles, exploiting DIAMET obs 5. Attribution and seasonal-to-decadal prediction of climate through

observation and process understanding Process-based model evaluation, also involving NCEO, NCAS 6. Application of the science of climate and its application in adaptation and mitigation decision-making Enhance impacts prediction (e.g. flooding/crops) via better links to Walker Institute 7. Space weather Data assimilation and space weather collaboration at Reading Met Office investment: 1.5 FTEs enough to build new capability?

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