Somalia Conflict Analysis Conflict-Sensitive Assistance May 18, 2006

Somalia Conflict Analysis Conflict-Sensitive Assistance May 18, 2006 Purpose of Study Increase understanding of conflict sources and dynamics in Somalia: Inform design of interventions Enable effective implementation Enable do no harm and potential conflict prevention

Somalia Conflict Analysis Conflict Sensitivity Consider potential impact of all strategies and interventions on the conflict environment avoid contributing to escalation if possible contribute to de-escalation Sometimes trade-off between technical solutions and conflict impact Somalia Conflict Analysis

Somalia Conflict Analysis Bank-led exercise with multi-donor support (UNDP, SIDA, DFID) Partnerships with local NGOs from three regions of Somalia Somaliland, Puntland and South-Central Somalia Advisory group of donors and organizations active on Somalia External reviewers Somalia Conflict Analysis Somalia Conflict Analysis

1. Desk study using Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF) variables adapted to Somali context 2. Analysis of preliminary findings and determination of key issues in each region for fieldwork 3.

Fieldwork by teams in each region using different qualitative techniques 4. Regional reports and synthesis report 5. Use of findings for policy/program development Somalia Conflict Analysis

Clan Identities: findings Armed conflicts in Somalia usually take place along clan lines, but clan identity is not cause of conflict Clan identities shaped by leaders to pursue control of resources and power When manipulated, clan identities can create and exacerbate divisions Clan groups can serve as destructive or constructive forces, e.g. by moderating traditional conflicts How can we best provide material and financial aid in this environment?

Somalia Conflict Analysis Clan Identities: pointers Make sure aid does not fuel clan-group competition or divisions Support cross-clan activities and institutions Use aid to help bridge divided groups Consider role of clan leaders Consider effects of material and financial aid and benefits on clan dynamics Somalia Conflict Analysis

State and Governance: findings Struggle for control of the state i.e. access to political power and economic resources - has been a continuing source of conflict Previous experiences have made Somalis suspicious of government How can state-building be supported in a way that minimizes chances of conflict? Somalia Conflict Analysis State and Governance: pointers Be prepared for political struggle around statebuilding

Support clan-neutral governance functions Learn from and build on institutions that work (e.g. non-state actors) Promote institutions that are inclusive (clans, subclans, ethnicity, socioeconomic characteristics) Somalia Conflict Analysis Economic Development: findings Livestock ban hurt pastoral dominated economy Remittances are vital lifeline Private sector activity created dynamic sectors Qat (khat) consumption and trade Control of commercial arteries

Profit-driven diaspora promotes cross-clan business partnerships What would be conflict-sensitive economic priorities? Somalia Conflict Analysis Economic Development: pointers Dont create an aid dependent Somalia in the past increased state fragility and conflict Consider effects of large-scale projects and high-value investments on lineage-based division small may be better

Consider ways to build nonpartisan government control of revenue sources Build on the strengths of local communities and mobilize Somalias human resources Somalia Conflict Analysis Economic Development: pointers Support economic activities that unite not divide sub-sectors have different characteristics Prioritize the economic backbone of society, but consider ways to strengthen economic diversification

Help develop systems for fair natural resource management Support employment among young men, and reintegrate militiamen into mainstream economic activities Somalia Conflict Analysis Conflict Monitoring Monitor indicators of change escalation/de-escalation of conflict Assess potential impact of aid interventions on the conflict situation

Somalia Conflict Analysis

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