Why Does Population Growth Vary Among Regions? KEY ISSUE THREE The Demographic Transition Model It is a model consisting of FIVE stages that helps to explain the rising and falling of natural increase over time in a country. Historically, no country has ever reverted to a previous stage. Thus, the model can be thought to have
a beginning, middle, and an end. Demographic Transition Model Stage One and Two Stage One Marked by very high birth and death rates. No long-term natural increase No
country presently is in Stage 1 Stage Two Marked by rapidly declining death rates and very high birth rates High natural increase Europe and North America entered stage 2 as a result
of the industrial revolution (~1750). Africa, Asia, and Latin America entered stage 2 around 1950 as a result of medical revolutionimproved medical care. Stage Three and Four Stage Three Marked by rapid decline in birth rates and steady decline in death rates Natural increase is moderate.
Gap between CBR and CDR is narrower in stage 3 countries than stage 2 countries. Population grows, because CBR is still greater than CDR. Most European countries and North America transitioned to stage 3 during first half of twentieth century. Stage Four
Marked by very low birth and death rates No long-term natural increase and possibly a decrease Country reaches stage 4 when population gains by CBR are diminished by losses because of CDR. Condition known as zero
population growth (ZPG) Demographers more precisely define ZPG as the TFR that produces no population change. A TFR of 2.1 produces ZPG Population change results from immigration. Population pyramids The Demographic
Transition Model Possible Stage 5: Decline Characterized by Very low CBR Increasing CDR: More elderly people than young persons Negative NIR
Over time, few young women in child-bearing years; Contributing to ever falling CBR Several European countries already have negative NIR. Russia is most notable hosting a negative NIR for 50 years. Stage Five?: Slovakia Shapes of Population Pyramids Japans Changing Population Pyramid What patterns do you notice? What factors might influence these
patterns? Read the article Read the Article over the Malthusian Theory then answer the following questions 1. What is the premise behind the theory? 2. Do you agree or disagree? Why or Why not? Thomas Malthus on Overpopulation
Malthus claimed the population was growing faster than the increase in food supply, leading to a great famine. Malthuss Critics Many geographers consider his beliefs too pessimistic. Malthuss theory based on idea that worlds supply of resources is fixed rather than expanding. Many disagree that population increase is not a
problem. Larger populations could stimulate economic Thomas Malthus on Overpopulation Theory and Reality Food production has increased over last 50 years faster than Malthus predicted. His model predicted world population to quadruple over the course of 50 years.
Not even in India has population growth outpaced food production. Population and Food Production in India Declining Birth Rates Two Successful Strategies for Lowering Birth Rates 1. Improving Education and Health Care 2. Emphasizes improving local economic conditions so that
increased wealth is allocated to education and health programs seeking to lower birth rates. Contraception More immediate results reaped than previous approach Met with greater resistance, because it goes against cultural or religious beliefs of some. Roman Catholics, fundamentalist Protestants, Muslims, and Hindus. Pro and Anti-Natalism Countries
around the world face problems from populations that are either growing too fast, or which are slowly shrinking. Countries with low birthrates try to promote their people to procreate by instituting pro-natalist policies. Countries with high birthrates try to curb the amount of children being born by instituting anti-natalist policies. Anti-Natalist Policies India has more than a billion people and a birthrate that remains very high. It will become
the most populated country in the world in the coming years. In the 60s and 70s, India tried to lower its birthrate through a program of forced sterilization. This led to a public outcry, and efforts were made voluntary- thus the government was ineffective at lowering birth rates. Anti-Natalist Policies China in the 1970s faced a population jumping into the billions. In order to
curb the reproductive habits of its huge populace, its leaders created a controversial law, the One Child Policy. Under the One Child Policy: Couples had to apply to have a child. Men could not marry until 22, women until 20. Having only one child would result in increased social benefits like money from the government, free food, or expanded opportunities. Having a second child could result in massive fines and a reduction in those social benefits.
Both men and women could receive a large sum of money for undergoing voluntary sterilization. Forced to have only one child, many Chinese women aborted female babies, waiting to have a male heir. These children today receive the affection of their entire extended families- little emperors. The policy was officially ended in 2015 in favor of the Two Child Policy. Reading Read Pages 54-59
Takes notes as you read Then answer the following questions 1. Why do African countries have the highest birth rate? 2. Explain the concept of Zero Population Growth 3. Calculate the RNI for the following demographics CBR= 35
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