Climate Variability and Change in the Antarctic Peninsula

Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment John Turner British Antarctic Survey Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Scope The Antarctic Report In July 2005 the Executive asked AGCS to take the lead on preparing this report An outline was prepared at the Amsterdam Meeting in November 2005

But the Executive (July 2006) decided to focus the project on a scientific report on climate change and the environment rather than a climate assessment. The Delegates stressed the need for speed. All the SSG and programmes should be involved. Possible Timetable November 2006 review scope, timetable, who will write what, the editing process etc. Establish a small editing committee? December 2006 - Issue invitations to authors. Deadline of September 2007? Through 2007 monitor progress, issue reminders November 2007 major review of contributions

April-May 2007 Editing committee meets? The Delegates requested a first draft by SCAR XXX in July 2008 The Amsterdam Version (1)

Three main sections:evolution since 10,000 yrs the past 50 years the next 100 years Evolution since -10,000 yrs (organizer Paul Mayewski) Ice core data (e.g. Taylor Dome, Siple Dome)(Mayewski) Marine sediment data (Amy Leventer, Rob Dunbar, Crosta, Pike) Glacial geology data (Hall, Conway for the Ross Sea hinge) Lake sediments data (Hodgson, BAS; Gibson, Utas Peninsula, Signy, coastal continental location and clime - take home message: last 1000 years cooler, stormier) Past sea level data (Hodgson, BAS; Domack) Atmospheric chemistry data (acidity, trace elements, dust) (Hong, Boutron, Mayewski)

The Amsterdam Version (2) Current (last 50 yrs) (organizer Colin Summerhayes)

Atmospheric circulation (John Turner, SAM etc; radiosondes; modes of variability; READER database Atmospheric chemistry (ozone, trace elements, Thompson/Solomon strato/tropo circulation impact) (D. Thompson) Southern Ocean: (i) warming (Gille, Science); (ii) circulation (Steve Rintoul, AUS; Karen Heywood; Mike Meredith); (iii) Ross Sea (Spezie); (iv) Weddell Sea (under ice) (Eberhard Fahrbach) Teleconnections (Turner; Rintoul; Meredith) Peninsula warming and glacier retreat (Vaughn) Sea ice retreat (Worby; others) Ice shelf retreat (Antarctic Peninsula vs. Ross Sea) Ted Scambos, Doug MacAyeal? East Ant and West Ant temp (stable, cooling) (thickening/thinning?) e.g. Davis in Science?; Siegert?) Ocean ecosystems and biogeochemistry (Julie Hall; DeBaar; GLOBEC/ICED connections (Eileen Hofmann; Eugene Murphy); decline in krill (due to

temp or increased seal activity) Terrestrial Animals and plants response to change (Bergstrom, Peck?, Convey); Introduced species (Bergstrom, Chown) Lakes and islands (who??) The Amsterdam Version (3)

+ 100 (organizer John Turner) IPCC Scenarios (Turner) Models such as HadCM3 (Turner) Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Precipitation, Sea level and Sea level response (continuing but not dramatic until +500yrs? (check Alley Nature Review paper) Ocean models such as OCCAM, thermohaline, coastal seas (Turner/Meredith)

Changes in ice shelves and ice streams (Siegert, WAIS community) Atmospheric + Biogeochmical Teleconnections (e.g. Ocean, Sarmiento) Biological response (E. Hoffman SOGLOBEC, E. Fanta); coastal seas response primary production (Arrigo?) Adaptive evolution in marine vertebrates (di Prisco, Verde) Terrestrial response (Life history changes, physiological stress/upper limits/ marine stenothermy, changes in primary production and decomposition, dispersal and colonization) (Convey, Huiskes, Peck, Frenot, Chown) Human impact on ecosystems non-indigenous species and transfer (Frenot, Convey, Bergstrom) Nearshore marine disturbance (icebergs, other forms of sea ice) (Peck, Barnes)

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