Chapter 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses COGNITIVE & NON COG ABILITIES PERSONALITY CRITERIA CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES
1 Conceptual & Operational Definitions Predictors & Criteria F. Kerlingers definitions Concept or construct: Whats the difference? Theory v. hypothesis: whats the difference? Predictive Hypothesis: Grounded in theory (explanation relationships) Predictors & Criteria: defined at two levels: conceptual & operational: Whats the difference? CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 2
Predictors (KSAOs, other attributes) (independent vars for experimental research) Give some examples with operational definitions Criteria (performance/results) Outcomes (dependent vars for experimental research) Give some examples with operational definitions CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 3 Theory Building and Testing fig 3.1 p 53 (2nd ed) 1. Theory:
predictor construct (height) is related to criterion construct (basketballability) 2. Predictive hypothesis (testable): predictor measure (height in inches) is related to Criterion measure (number of dunks in 2 minutes) 3. Predictor measure is valid measure of height 4. Criterion measure is a valid measure of basketballability 5. Predictor measure is related to the Criterion construct (confirms prediction and supports theory) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 4 Theory and Practice Specification of Population For what populations does the theory hold? Why would this be important?
Give some examples, e.g. women in the military? Geographical differences? Specification of time intervals Whats the optimal timeframe for criterion collection? What should be the length of time for criterion collection? Give examples for jobs with different learning curves CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 5 A Theory of Performance Performance is a construct Can do examples: Skills
Lewins formula? What is it? Campbells 8 factor model of Job Performance and Competence Table 3.1 (2nd ed) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Task Performance and Job Knowledge Motivation and Effort Quality of Work Communication Ability (Oral & Written)
Leadership / Supervision Administrative Competence Teamwork Emotional Intelligence CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 7 Specifying functional relationships Linear Give examples linear relationships Curvilinear Give examples of curvilinear relationships CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES
8 Criteria Criterion constructs Inferring Constructs from Measures A theory of Performance Performance Components and Determinants Contextual Behavior Trainability CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES
9 Predictors & Predictive Hypotheses Avoid folklore theories Use standardized measures proven to work E.g. Cognitive ability, which is usually superior to non-cognitive measures. Cognitive Factors (ability to think) perceive, process, evaluate, compare, create, Understand, manipulate (ideas), reason 75 years of Factor Analytic studies CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 10
Associative & Span memory CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 11 Cognitive Abilities General Mental Ability (GMA) intelligence Processes of Acquiring, Storing (memory) Retrieving Combining, (relationships) Comparing, (relationships) Using in context new concepts (abstraction) (Humphreys, 79) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES
12 GMA Spearmans (1927)g Fluid intelligence (Gf) Basic reasoning Crystallized intelligence (Gc) Acquired knowledge (e.g. vocabulary tests) Carroll (1993) using factor analytic studies Three stratum model First order factors (several) Second order factors (R. B. Cattells Gf, Gc) Third order g (like Spearmans) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES
13 Job Specific Ks & Ss O*Net three occupational skills list Basic Cross functional Occupation specific Think of some for the IO psychologists job CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 14 Personality Constructs Trait habitual way of thinking or behaving in response to a variety of situations.
Value, goal, beh tendency to seek or avoid Sometimes role specific What does this mean? Called work styles occupational values (O*Net) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 15 Personality Five Factor Model (universal) NEO (CANOE) Memorize the five traits Guion & Highhouse
Surgency (extravert, dominance, assertive) Agreeableness (likeability, friendly) Conscientiousness (responsible, dependable) Emotional Stability Open to experience (intellectance) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 16 Personality Integrity and conscientiousness Not engaging in counter-productive behavior Stealing, embezzlement
cheating customers Others? Trustworthy Work hard without surveillance CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 17 Personality Other traits (just a few) Core Self-evaluation (Judge, Eraz, Bono) Locus of Control (Rotter) Smith, Trompenaars & Dugan (2007) PA/NA (positive/ negative affect) Watson, Clark, Lee Tellegen (1988)
GCOS General Causality Scale Description (Deci & Ryan) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 18 Personality some questions Are traits malleable? Are they job specific? How, if so should they be used in selection? What needs to be done to improve their use? CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 19
Physical and Sensory Competencies What effect has ADA had? Physical Characteristics At what cost are accommodations to the workplace (for ADA?) Find some examples? What role does human factors psych play? Physical Abilities E. Fleishman, R. Hogan (have studied them) Are they important in sports? Are they important in the military? CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 20
Non-Cognitive Emotional Intelligence (Goleman, 95) Perceive, appraise, express emotions (Mayer & Salovey, 97) Lacks conceptual coherence Not psychometrically sound Redundant with other measures? E.g. cognitive ability, personality traits? (Matthews, Roberts, & Zeidner, 04) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 21 Experience, Education, Training Credentials are rarely useful
Unless based on a Job Analysis Some majors may be useful If knowledge is comparable to professions Can you think of some? Can competencies be assessed via testing? What would Prometric say? CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 22 Team Selection Predictors Technical (often needed) Stevens & Campion (94) Team KSAs
Interpersonal & Self-management The knowledge, skill, and ability requirements for teamwork: Implications for human resource management ( Michael J. Stevens Michael A. Campion, 94) Staffing Work Teams: Development and Validation of a Selecti on Test for Teamwork Settings (Stevens & Campion, 99) Selection in Teams: An Exploration of the Teamwork Knowled ge, Skills, and Ability Test (McClough & Rogelberg, 03) Use of situational judgment tests to predict job performance: A clarification of the literature. (McDaniel, et al. 01) CHAP 3 DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE HYPOTHESES 23
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